Humboldt County, California Real Estate Market Report - February 2012

Could January 2012 be the bottom of the bust?

Our inventory hardly ever goes down for three straight months at the beginning of the year, but that's exactly what happened January, February & March of this year!  This can't help but to give prices some support, and keep them from going down.

And the number of homes sold is not only running at "normal" levels for February, but has been solid for 3 months in a row - Dec '11 - 92; Jan '12 - 74; Feb '12 - 77!

And sure enough we see our average home prices back up into the $250,000 range, where it averaged for most of 2011.

 



And our median home price is flat at the $225,000 range. 

There's no real estate gnome that comes out to ring a bell signaling the bottom of the real estate market, but if it turns out to be Jan '12, remember, you heard it here first!

Humboldt County, California Real Estate Statistics, July 2011

How is our local real estate market in Humboldt County, California performing, in the midst of all of the gloomy national and world economic news? Kinda yucky.


Our housing inventory, the number of homes for sale on the market, has been creeping up all year. We're not high beyond normal, but we are high enough that we might start seeing some downward pressure on prices.

The more homes we have that are selling, the better support we will have for prices. While we are up off of some of the scary bottom figures we've seen earlier in the year, we are not selling so many homes that it looks like prices are going to start moving up again any time soon.

And sure enough, our average sales price continues our ooze downward. Our average sales price has been lower than the year before for 5 of the last 7 months, and 25 of the last 31 months. But don't panic. This too will pass. We won't know it's the bottom of the market until we've already passed it.

The median price has graphed similarly to the average price.

There is no little man that comes out and rings a bell on the day that the market hits bottom. It could be next month, or today, or last week. We have a great selection of homes, the best interest rates in years, and you gotta live somewhere. And rents are very strong relative to price. We will look back some day, and say, "I sure do wish I had bought real estate in Humboldt County in ___," and there will be a date in that blank. We just don't know if it's today's date, or tomorrow's!

Humboldt County, California December Real Estate Statistics

I’m a little late getting these stats our, but the real estate market in Humboldt County, California is hanging in there during the month of December!

At the beginning of 2011, there were 550 homes on the market, which is right in our “normal” 500- 550! Fewer homes on the market, of course, supports prices and keeps them from falling. That’s good.

And we had an uncharacteristically high 75 homes sold in December in Humboldt County! That’s the highest count since September, and during what is historically one of our lowest months!. Of course, more homes sold puts upward pressure on prices.

The average sales price of a home came down from November, but remember, that was a very uncharacteristic month. There were 6 homes sold in November for over $500,000, one for $2.2 million! So while December’s average home sales price was down from the previous month, it was a solid $270,993, pretty close to the average for the year of $278,000!

The median home sale price in Humboldt County for December was a little scary, though, down to $235,100, a recent record low! We’re still 3 for 4 so far in the statistical categories!

Are we turning the corner? Have we bottomed out and started looking up? So far in January ’11, things continue to look solid. Over the last 30 days we have sold 78 homes for an average sales price of $261,499, and a median sales price of $243,450. Our lead indicator is volume; as it moves up, prices will follow. So, are we turning a corner? Just asking that question honestly is a good sign!

Humboldt County, California November Real Estate Statistics

I’m a little late getting these stats our, but the real estate market in Humboldt County, California is hanging in there during the month of November!




There are currently 568 homes on the market, which is just a hair higher than our “normal” 500- 550, and close to our recent low of 550. Fewer homes on the market, of course, supports prices and keeps them from falling. That’s good.

The bad news is that we only sold 57 homes in November in Humboldt County, a recent record low for the month. Fewer homes sold puts downward pressure on prices. Perhaps these 2 figures balance each other out?

We’ll have to wait and see, because there were 6 homes over $500,000 that sold in Humboldt County in November, one for $2.2 million! That really skewed our average sale price up to a 30 month high of $325,809!

And the median home sale price in Humboldt County jumped up to $250,000, which is right in line with the average median home sale price all year!

Overall, this report, like so many others this year, points to a bottoming out of the market. When is the market going to improve? Nobody knows, but there’s only one direction to go from the bottom; up!



October 2010 Humboldt County Real Estate Market Statistics

What do our October 2010 Humboldt County, California real estate statistics look like?  We seem to have started a downward trend in prices again in Humboldt County, California. The number of active homes on the market, while not a huge number, is creeping up in relationship to previous years. We now have 677 homes active on the market; that’s much closer to 2008 levels than 2009 levels. And more homes on the market will mean downward pressure on prices.

Especially when the number of homes sold is down as well. At 72 homes sold, we’re just a hair below 2008 levels, but well below the 88 homes sold in 2009. While not by much, this is the lowest number of homes sold in the month of October in recent memory. This, too, will put downward pressure on prices.

The average home sales price for the month of October was $256,572; not the lowest of the year, but the lowest for any October in a long time. It also continues the downward trend started from the most recent peak in July.

And the median home sales price in Humboldt County was $236,375, which does represent a new low for the year and for recent history.

It seems that the large number of short sales and bank owned properties, or REO’s, in the market is causing our downward trends. 26% of the homes sold in October were either short sales or bank-owned properties; that’s up from 18% for all of 2009. And not only do short sales and bank-owned properties sell for less, they compete with regular sellers, thereby putting downward pressure on all real estate prices. While the rest of the country has been dealing with this level, and even higher levels, of bank controlled sales, this is a first for Humboldt County. Is there a bright spot in the clouds? Yes: it is a great time to BUY real estate!



What questions do you have about short sales or bank-owned properties? Give me a call at (707) 499-7111, or email me at Jeff@RealtorJeff.net.

Update on Humboldt County Residential Sales

I just shared statistics for sold residential real estate in Humboldt County, California, and it seems that prices, both average and median, are plummeting. Is this really the case, or are there some anomalies or structural changes affecting purchase price?

A while back I explained the different layers of homes available in the Humboldt County market, and how each is responding to the different economic conditions in the marketplace. (see http://humboldtproperties.blogspot.com/2010/02/starter-homes-fixerswhats-in-name.html) You might recall that I divided the segment into 5 key layers.

          2009 Humboldt County Housing Market Segments

• Fixers –                 up to $225,000           24% of the market

• Starters -     $225,000 - $275,000           31.3% of the market

• Mid-range - $275,000 - $400,000           29.7% of the market

• Executive -   $400,000 - $500,000             8.2% of the market

• Luxury -       $500,000 and up                    6.8 % of the market

As I explored the details of our Humboldt County market for January and February 2010, I discovered the following details:

Jan-Feb, 2010 Humboldt County Housing Market Segments
• Fixers –                    up to $225,000           41% of the market
• Starters -        $225,000 - $275,000            15.2% of the market
• Mid-range -    $275,000 - $400,000            32.4% of the market
• Executive -      $400,000 - $500,000              4.8% of the market
• Luxury -          $500,000 and up                     6.7 % of the market

The huge movement from the “Starter” segment of the market into the “Fixer” segment, as well as the significant drop in “Executive” homes sold, are the best explanations for the significant change in average and median home sale prices in the first 2 months of 2010. So, rather than seeing this new data as the beginnings of a new slide in real estate prices, I’m thinking it’s an anomaly in the market, one that will be corrected over the coming months. It sure does emphasize the opportunity for killer deals in the bottom segments of our market, though!